Notes from Across the Pond

The US midterm elections have come and gone — a ‘blue wave’ that I believe, at its core, is a repudiation of President Trump even more than a vote of confidence across the board of successful Democratic candidates. It was an important political milestone that is likely to have reverberations far beyond the shores of America – perhaps the most consequential political milestone among those that seem to daily abound in the States these days.

But Trump remains president and, if European pundits have it right, perhaps becomes all the more problematic across the pond. More on this later.

For quite some time, I have considered writing a blog about the state of this Union I’m in these days – the European Union – as it reacts to the shifting sands in America. But virtually every day for nearly two years, there has been a new pile of revelations, screed and decisions to add to yesterday’s pile and the day before that, and the month before that. The elections will be one more to untangle. So understanding that today’s blog may be stale by tomorrow, I guess I have to put pen to paper at some point or I’ll never write anything!

As most of you I’m sure are aware, Europe has worked diligently to become more independent of the US since Trump became president. Initially, you would see people like Emmanuel Macron of France, Keir Starmer of the UK, Frederick Mertz of Germany and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen making their way across the pond to reason with him. Not so much anymore. Trump has consistently derided the continent, just recently calling the European Union ‘the biggest foe’ of the United States(!).

Here are a few independent EU steps that come to mind:

• The EU has beefed up defense spending considerably – according to one source, by as much as €1 trillion over the next decade – to provide a military deterrent primarily against Russia. While this does not thrill me personally, I understand the logic. Especially given Trump’s rhetoric about 1) pulling out of NATO and 2) his cozy relationship with Putin.
• It has also entered into trading agreements in the last two years with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, India, Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand. (As an aside, the EU is importing Argentinian beef, which has caused a ruckus in Ireland, France and Poland. As you can imagine.)
• And then there was that shocker of an announcement by von der Leyen during her State of the Union address in September about a new category of associate EU membership, specifically with Canada in mind. The broad brushstrokes of such a membership were hammered out just recently in Canada, and the deal could be completed within a year.

Make no mistake, though. Europe is still inextricably tied to the US, and vice versa, and will remain so for a long time to come. The US remains the EU’s largest trading partner, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said recently that anyone who believes Europe can defend itself without the US should ‘keep on dreaming.’ Difficult words for Ukraine to hear these days, I’m sure.

However, it’s fair to say that Europe hasn’t been idle in its attempt to mitigate US ties. And I expect more to come.

Of course, Europe is feeling the effects of two wars not of its making – the war in Iran and the Ukraine war. The prices at the pump, in heating oil and in the grocery store are just as dire here, in some cases moreso, than in the US.

At the gas/petrol pump

As we all know, going to the filling station is a painful experience these days. The US war with Iran and the subsequent blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has caused uncertainty and shortages in the world petroleum market. In Europe, that has translated as an increase of about 14-19 percent for gasoline/petrol at the pumps since February.

As a baseline, we pay considerably more per liter in taxes and fees than in the US — about 50 percent per liter on average, as opposed to 11-12 percent per gallon in the United states. That’s always been the case.

Today, I am paying €1.99 liter or $8.43 gallon for gasoline (taking into account the lousy US/Euro exchange rate) — roughly double the US average. Before the war, I was paying 27 cents less at the pumps, so I’ve seen a 16 percent increase.

It’s never been cheap to drive here, but adding 16 percent due primarily to a US-created war is pretty darned painful. I always refill my tiny Toyota Yaris when it’s half full, so as not to shock my heart with a fill-up. And I still inevitably pay €37-40 ($41-45) every time.

Diesel/home heating oil

I inevitably learn interesting factoids when I research my blogs. This time, I learned that vehicle diesel and home heating oil are basically the same petroleum product, just refined slightly differently. This would explain why both diesel and heating track at the same pace.

Close to 40 percent of automobiles in Europe run on diesel, as compared to about 3 percent in the US. Freight trucks and farm machinery throughout the world run on diesel to boot. With regard to Europe, then, diesel supply becomes extraordinarily important. And as European countries and the EU scramble to secure that supply – efforts, again, due to a war not of its making – shortages occur and prices soar.

In Europe, the cost increases since this time last year have been astronomical, anywhere from 30 percent for diesel at the pump to as much as 70 percent for home heating oil. Yowza!

Here in Ireland, farmers, farm suppliers and truckers last April staged a three-day protest over diesel prices. (Remember, diesel is also heavily taxed, at a rate of 48 percent per liter here.) Their trucks and tractors snarled downtown Dublin, blocked motorways and shut down the only oil refinery here. They wanted the government to mitigate those prices, and they definitely wanted it pronto. The government did accede to some demands, but also after several days started removing trucks and arresting protesters. It was an interesting time here, for sure.

Not to get too deeply into the geopolitical weeds, but Russia is one of the largest supplier of diesel in the world. And Ukraine has been bombing the hell out its refineries. Hence Trump’s incentive to help Russia out by buying some of its diesel and tabling sanctions. Also hence, his rhetoric against Ukraine. European leaders were uniformly aghast by this announcement and as a result, EU foreign ministers adopted nearly 1600 new Russian sanctions.

One final thought before I move on. I may not have a diesel car, but I do heat my home with oil. Since the war with Iran began, home heating oil here in Ireland has increased 67 percent. Before the war, I paid about €350-400 twice a season to heat the house. I fill up when the tank is about half full (like my car) to reduce sticker shock. In April, I paid almost €700 for the first of two deliveries this winter. And I dread that second one. By the way, I only turn on the heat at night; during the day, it’s layers for me.

If you think I don’t curse Trump about this, you’d be woefully wrong. To be fair, I also curse the Irish and EU governments for not investigating price gouging…

The rise (and potential fall?) of the far right

We cannot lay at President Trump’s feet the rising tide of far-right sentiment in Europe. It’s been percolating for much of this century. Take Marine Le Pen, the perennial far-right presidential candidate from France who espouses a moratorium on legal immigration, opposes multiculturalism and favors a ‘France First’ economic agenda. She has run three times for president under the National Rally party starting in 2012, all unsuccessful; but pundits are saying the 2027 election will likely go her way.

But the National Rally isn’t the only far-right party that’s been around for a while. The nationalistic AfD party in Germany formed in 2013; Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party formed in 2012, to name two more.

In fact, from my limited point of view, far right parties (and far left parties) seem to have long been an accepted part of Europe’s political climate. This is due in no small part to the fact that, unlike the United States much to my chagrin, bountiful parties of all stripes abound here. Don’t like the center? You can go a little right or left, or a lot right or left, and you’re likely to find your specific tribe. I won’t get too high up on my soap box here, but if ever there was a country that needed multiple parties, it’s America.

I digress.

I recently read an interesting NY Times conversation piece on the European far right, featuring an American, Dutch and Italian journalist. While hardly marginalizing the parties, they did opine that nationalism only goes so far when a country’s government is part of a bigger, EU system. Pragmatic leaders have to balance this, which apparently Moloni does brilliantly.

Still, a Marine Le Pen presidency is not to be taken lightly, and Moloni is getting nudged by a party that’s even further right than hers is. Don’t forget Nigel Farage in Great Britain; progressive Pedro Sanchez in Spain who is facing far-right opposition; Austria, the Netherlands and other countries coming in with right-leaning parties.

Immigration, of course, is a key component of the parties’ platforms and of unrest here in Europe. While Trump beefs up ICE budgets and agents wreak havoc in America, here it seems much more grassroots. When an immigrant or refugee is charged with a crime even here in peaceful Ireland, almost inevitably bad actors take to the streets and cause havoc that would not have been caused if the alleged perpetrator was Irish. It’s one of the reasons, I believe, that the anti-immigration parties attract a certain kind of ruffian – if they are attracted to anything approaching an organized party.

And by the way, do not think the EU is the good guy when it comes to immigration. I offer links to two stories here and here for further and heartbreaking reading.

At least the blush seems to be off the rose with Trump these days. He appears to be persona non grata with these parties’ leadership, in no small part due to the war in their backyard in Iran, his new vulnerability since the midterms and his tariffs detrimental to their countries.

But the right doesn’t appear to have the entire corner on the market. In April, Hungary’s nationalist prime minister Victor Orban, whom Trump supported, was defeated by Peter Magyar, who ran on a platform of ending corruption, aligning with the EU and instituting reforms. Apparently, he’s doing just that, and his government has also introduced draft legislation on issues including online safety, climate protection, renewable energy use and addressing the gender pay gap.

But perhaps the most interesting is the recent election in Serbia (which is not, but is seeking membership, in the EU). In late October, student-organized party Student List – Students are Winning won a majority of seats in the National Assembly, defeating long-time president Aleksander Vucic – an authoritarian figure who curbed press freedom, worked to stamp out civil liberties and stacked the judiciary.

Student List fashions itself a ‘big tent’ party and purposely has no leader or much of a platform yet. It began on college campuses in 2025, growing out of protests of the Vucic government. It is not perfect – it does not advocate sanctions on neighboring Russia, for instance – but I draw attention to it because I think it is remarkable that in two years, college students built a coalition broad enough to unseat an authoritarian.

Student protests in EU

Speaking of students, my American readers might have been – quite understandably – wrapped up in their own country’s politics and perhaps paid only glancing attention to the student-led protests in Europe this fall. For me, they’ve been a revelation – in no small part because there seems to be a certain maturity level, a certain political savvy that I haven’t seen manifested in their American counterparts.

The protests began in France in September, as high school students (high school students(!)) and their teachers took to the streets throughout the country to decry an absolutely abysmal education system there: classes averaging 30 students, with some spiking to 35 or more; chronic teacher shortages; school buildings with leaky roofs, rat infestations, broken plumbing, and more. By mid-October, protest numbers reached 550,000 countrywide.

From France, the protests spread to Belgium, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and other European countries. The protesters remain young but a bit older, and the reasons have been expanded to include cost of living, lack of housing, lack of job opportunities.

‘We are tired of everything,’ a young protester in Madrid told the New York Times. ‘Things keep changing in a way that doesn’t benefit us.’ ‘There’s a sense of rejection and fatigue,’ said another.

Of course, many of the protests have been hijacked by bad actors and so many of the recent headlines have been about looting and arrests and violence — that’s de rigueur these days, unfortunately. But at its core, these have been driven by young people who see a bleak future and want to be heard.

It is very fair to say that youth had their part to play in the US mid-term elections. From what I’ve been able to gather, 27 percent of 18-29 year olds voted, the second highest in 30 years. But 27 percent is, in my humble opinion, not a lot to write home about. And I do tire of seeing mostly gray heads at rallies and protests in the US.

And speaking of those midterms

While one might think there would be nothing but jubilation in Europe over the election results, policy experts, pundits and government folks are not jumping up and down just yet. After all, an unpredictable man who calls the EU ‘the biggest foe’ of the United States bears watching closely. And he still has two more years in office.

It’s instructive that, as I already said, the far right parties here are distancing themselves from him, but also instructive that major European leaders have also not commented on the midterms.

The fear is that a mercurial, cornered Trump, bogged down in the US by the Democrats in Congress, will turn his attention to the one area where he has more leeway as president: foreign affairs. This could play out in more tariffs, sanctions, military threats, and so on.

As a Euro News editorial opined: ‘Europe may therefore not get a weaker Trump, but a Trump who turns even more strongly to world politics. For the EU this leads to an uncomfortable conclusion. They must not base their strategic preparations on simply sitting Trump out politically.’

Finally!

Okay, guys, that’s a wrap. Sorry not to get to AI (the EU passed legislation in 2024; the US, not yet), data centers (protests mounting), grocery prices (up on average 3 percent here) – all issues as big here as in the states. But I have to stop somewhere! If you’ve made it all the way to the end, congratulations… I applaud you.

Meanwhile, I’ll try not to let two years go by before I write another ‘Notes from Across the Pond’ again.

A note about my figures. I scanned a wide variety of news outlets, public policy think tanks, opinion pieces and more. I did use AI, but cross checked it for veracity as much as possible. I also converted euros/dollars, liters/gallons etc., and if I screwed up that is totally on me.