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There is a deepening sense of unease here.

If I still lived in the states, I would be horrified, angry, insulted about the war in Ukraine – all of the emotions my American friends and family are feeling and perhaps more. I would not, at least not immediately, be adding to that an anxious unrest and an inkling of fear that comes from living in Europe right now.

World War I, World War II, these were Europe’s wars. Yes, America was deeply involved, but the fighting was in France and England, Brussels and Italy. And even though Ireland is not next door to mainland Europe, it is part of the European Union, committed to its sanctions path, close to Great Britain where Putin has been doing some saber rattling. When I consider a madman with a button on nuclear weapons, this horror takes on a geographic tinge. Where might the first be released? What are the prevailing winds? These are things I think about. And I do not live in Germany or Austria, let alone Poland or Hungary.

This is a real and present consideration. And all things considered, arguably the most potent. But it is hardly the only consideration. All of the western world are feeling the meteoric rise in energy prices. But as I live in Ireland, I will talk about the implications here. The cost per liter of gasoline is approaching €2, up from €1.77 when I wrote my blog several weeks ago and among the highest gas costs in Europe. That’s a little less than $8 a gallon, considerably more than the $4 now at US gas pumps (which, don’t get me wrong, nearly made my eyes pop!). Home heating oil is now being rationed throughout Ireland, as spike in demand spirals out of control. Costs rise daily, and have doubled in just two months.

At an emergency cabinet meeting of ministers this week, Taoiseach (prime minister) Micheal Martin (above) laid out the war’s potential implications for Ireland. Farmers will be hard hit. Raw material for animal feed and fertilizer are major Russian and Ukrainian exports. If shortages or rationing occurs, there would be “significant and immediate” implications for domestic food supply and farm income. Moreover, the EU wants Ireland and other farming countries to plant extra grain crops to make up for the production in Ukraine, which is considered a major breadbasket for the European market. How are we to do that, say the farmers, when we could have little ability to run our farms as it is?  

Businesses coming out of COVID also face risks from energy costs and market volatility. The euro is slipping fairly dramatically, for instance, and is now €1.09 to the dollar. As I transfer money from the states fairly regularly, I can tell you that just a few weeks ago the exchange rate was at €1.16 and I’ve paid a rate of €1.19 before. Industries like biopharma, electronics and data processing, which sustained Ireland through the pandemic, are vulnerable to higher energy prices.

So we have the first war on European soil in 80 years. We have runaway inflation. We have home heating and gas prices soaring out of sight. And we in Europe are poised to take in 2 million Ukrainians, almost assuredly more and perhaps less. This is appropriate and morally right, and yet there are implications.  In order to accomplish this mass migration, the European Union has invoked a never-before-used directive passed in 2001. Essentially, the directive circumvents asylum procedures and streamlines protection across the EU. (To which my humanitarian aid worker daughter opines, would that such open-door policy was extended to Syrians, and she more than hints at a taint of discrimination. I can’t disagree with her, while I also asked her to see more broadly. These are Europeans, and you take care of your own, too.)

Each country in the EU is apportioned a certain number of refugees based on a population formula. Ireland will be assigned 20,000 people for every 1 million who flee Ukraine. To date, between 1.5 and 2 million have left and that number could go as high as 4 million. The Irish government is looking at plans to use Army barracks and hotels to take some Ukrainians, and have put out an appeal for citizens to consider opening their homes. More than 12,000 housing offers have been received in just the past few days from the good and generous people of Ireland. But as you may recall from my last blog, housing in Ireland is in crisis mode. The implications extend beyond housing, of course. Schools in every nook and cranny of Ireland are preparing to welcome Ukrainian students. Health care and social services will be extended to Ukrainian citizens as well. Mental health services, already strained, are readying to help traumatized people. Elderly people, forced from homes and medical services, will need to be attended to.

The World Bank is working on a €3 billion package of grants and loans to help out countries who take in Ukrainians. But it is also fair to say that my small country will have to figure out how to pay for at least part of these costs. This week, at yet another emergency meeting, the government agreed to cut excise duty on gasoline by 20 cents per liter on unleaded and 15 cents per liter on diesel to help offset energy costs. But the best I can figure out, excise duty comprises a considerable source of income for the government. So how does this work? I again want to stress that it is morally imperative that Ireland open its borders to Ukrainian refugees. To do less, to create red tape and strictures, is to do less for humanity of which we are all a part. But let us do so with eyes wide open.

Do I think that this exquisite timing to exact maximum pain was all part of Vladimir Putin’s Machiavellian plan from the beginning? You bet I do. Having said all of this, there are hopeful signs and more than hopeful signs. I don’t think he counted on western countries rising as one against him. I don’t think he expected such far-reaching sanctions that I can only hope are sucking the monetary life out of him. The Russian economy is in shambles. The major ratings agencies have reduced its credit rating to junk status. I read this week that an Israeli/Russian oligarch has renounced his Russian citizenship. Self-serving? Perhaps. Still, a sign of the time. The dominos keep falling…

Meanwhile, reports filter out of disaffected Russian soldiers. I am reminded of a New York Times story that reported entire Russian units laid down their arms without a fight, and soldiers punched holes in their vehicles’ gas tanks and tires. Or the story, widely reported, of the teenaged soldier who broke down when a Ukrainian woman let him use her cell phone to call his mother. I take great heart at the Russian citizens who protest the war in Ukraine – at great personal risk and despite the probability arrest or worse. Putin has bankrupted them, is forcing them slowly but surely into the worst kind of penury, and for a war far away that means little in a society where the motherland means increasingly less. Is it little wonder that so many are finally saying ‘enough’?

Europeans are opening their arms wide, and embracing and welcoming their war-torn neighbors. Stay here in our country, they say, and we will give you shelter, and sustenance and rest, while you work to mend your body and spirit. And lest anyone think I have forgotten Volodomir Zalenskiy (below), I most wholeheartedly have not. If there are more than hopeful signs, his is surely a banner. He has rallied his people, given them stoutness of heart, asked as much of them as he has demanded of himself.   

And so I will end on a hopeful note. For all that one man has wreaked havoc on the world, the human spirit is stronger. I am reminded of the anthem “People Have the Power,” written by musician Patty Smith. ‘And the armies ceased advancing because the people had their ear. And the shepherds and the soldiers lay beneath the stars, exchanging visions and laying arms to waste in the dust. In the form of shining valleys where the pure air recognized and my senses newly opened, I awaken to the cry: The people have the power. The people have the power to redeem the work of fools. Upon the meek the graces shower. It’s decreed the people rule.’

Let us all hope this is true. Amen.

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*This is an Irish Times story that details the implications of the war on Ireland, which I credit for much of my information.

*In case you are interested, here are the full lyrics to ‘People Have the Power.’

I was dreaming in my dreaming
Of an aspect bright and fair
And my sleeping it was broken
But my dream it lingered near
In the form of shining valleys
Where the pure air recognized
And my senses newly opened
I awakened to the cry
That the people have the power
To redeem the work of fools
Upon the meek the graces shower
It’s decreed the people rule

The people have the power
The people have the power
The people have the power
The people have the power

Vengeful aspects became suspect
And bending low as if to hear
And the armies ceased advancing
Because the people had their ear
And the shepherds and the soldiers
Lay beneath the stars
Exchanging visions
And laying arms
To waste in the dust
In the form of shining valleys
Where the pure air recognized
And my senses newly opened
I awakened to the cry

The people have the power
The people have the power
The people have the power
The people have the power

Where there were deserts
I saw fountains
Like cream the waters rise
And we strolled there together
With none to laugh or criticize
And the leopard
And the lamb
Lay together truly bound
I was hoping in my hoping
To recall what I had found
I was dreaming in my dreaming
God knows a purer view
As I surrender to my sleeping
I commit my dream to you

The people have the power
The people have the power
The people have the power
The people have the power

The power to dream, to rule
To wrestle the world from fools
It’s decreed the people rule
It’s decreed the people rule
Listen
I believe everything we dream
Can come to pass through our union
We can turn the world around
We can turn the earth’s revolution
We have the power
People have the power

The people have the power
The people have the power

The power to dream, to rule
To wrestle the world from fools
It’s decreed the people rule
It’s decreed the people rule
We have the power
People have the power
We have the power…